Uncertainty in Emissions Projections for Climate Models

Joint Program Report
Uncertainty in Emissions Projections for Climate Models
Webster, M.D., M.H. Babiker, M. Mayer, J.M. Reilly, J. Harnisch, R. Hyman, M.C. Sarofim and C. Wang (2001)
Joint Program Report Series, 25 pages

Report 79 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1 ° x 1° latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0 ° C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6 ° C when simulated through MIT IGSM.

Citation:

Webster, M.D., M.H. Babiker, M. Mayer, J.M. Reilly, J. Harnisch, R. Hyman, M.C. Sarofim and C. Wang (2001): Uncertainty in Emissions Projections for Climate Models. Joint Program Report Series Report 79, 25 pages (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/14704)

Superseded by:

Reprint 2002-3. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models (Atmospheric Environment, 2002)
  • Joint Program Report
Uncertainty in Emissions Projections for Climate Models

Webster, M.D., M.H. Babiker, M. Mayer, J.M. Reilly, J. Harnisch, R. Hyman, M.C. Sarofim and C. Wang

Joint Program Report Series

Report 

79
25 pages
2001

Abstract/Summary: 

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1 ° x 1° latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0 ° C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6 ° C when simulated through MIT IGSM.

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