Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH₃) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1°×1° latitude–longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0°C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6°C when simulated through MIT IGSM.

© 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.