Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century

Journal Article
Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century
Paltsev, S.  (2020)
Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, 9(1), 43-62

Abstract/Summary:

Abstract: The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting more challenging because the current energy and emission policies diverge further and further from the stated long-term policy goals. We provide a discussion of descriptive and prescriptive approaches to energy and climate forecasts. While the fundamental uncertainties are unavoidable, a group of scenarios that project the entire range of plausible developments provides better guidance for decision-making than any (or several) individual scenario(s). We offer an example of an integrated approach from the MIT Joint Program Outlook that can be used for a quantitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different energy pathways. Despite the broad variety of scenarios, the article finds some robust findings for the energy system.

Citation:

Paltsev, S.  (2020): Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century. Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, 9(1), 43-62 (https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.spal)
  • Journal Article
Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century

Paltsev, S. 

Abstract/Summary: 

Abstract: The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting more challenging because the current energy and emission policies diverge further and further from the stated long-term policy goals. We provide a discussion of descriptive and prescriptive approaches to energy and climate forecasts. While the fundamental uncertainties are unavoidable, a group of scenarios that project the entire range of plausible developments provides better guidance for decision-making than any (or several) individual scenario(s). We offer an example of an integrated approach from the MIT Joint Program Outlook that can be used for a quantitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different energy pathways. Despite the broad variety of scenarios, the article finds some robust findings for the energy system.

Posted to public: 

Thursday, January 2, 2020 - 15:45