Sponsor: US Federal Aviation Administration (via MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment)

Duration: 1 year

Abstract: Large-scale production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) around the globe is needed to meet the aviation industry’s ambitious decarbonization goals. Production scale-up will require identification of waste feedstocks and land for energy crop cultivation, sustainable farming and land-use practices, and investments in conversion capacity as well as fuel and feedstock logistics. Collaborating with the MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, we will assess global biomass availability, broken down by region, and the associated potential for SAF production with current and improved conversion technologies. Using the enhanced version of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we will explicitly represent land use, land conversion, and land availability for biofuels for 18 world regions, including the USA, China, India, Europe, Africa, Brazil, Japan, Canada, Indonesia and others. In this assessment, land availability projections will be driven by explicit representation of land conversion costs, endogenous changes in land and agriculture intensification opportunities, and price-induced changes in energy efficiency in SAF production and transportation technologies.