Canadian hydropower resources offer a potentially attractive option for meeting decarbonization targets in the US Northeast region, where there are ambitious climate goals and nearby hydro resources in Quebec. Existing transmission capacity is, however, a limiting factor in expanding hydropower imports to the region.

To examine the value of expanding transmission capacity from Quebec to the Northeast,  we employ an integrated top-down bottom-up modeling framework (USREP-EleMod). This research was part of an Energy Modeling Forum effort, EMF34, with a goal of better characterizing linkages in energy markets across North America. The scenarios we examine exogenously expand transmission capacity by 10, 30, and 50% above existing capacity into the US Northeast (New York/New England), finding the value to the economy of these expansions ranging from $.38-$.49 per kWh imported into New York, and $.30-$.33 per kWh imported into New England by 2050. 

The scenarios include economy-wide emissions goals these states have set for themselves. The carbon limits we impose raise fuel prices more than electricity prices, and as a result, we find greater electrification in the US Northeast region from 2030 onward--a result that one would not see using just an electricity sector model, This demonstrates a main hypothesis of EMF34, that models that looked at more integration across energy markets would give deeper insight than more narrowly focused models.

HIghlights:

    Canadian hydropower imports benefit the US Northeast region in transition to a low-carbon economy
    Transmission capacity expansion is evaluated based on a top-down bottom-up model
    The value to the economy of the expansion is significantly larger than the cost of the electricity itself