Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario

Joint Program Report
Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario
Paltsev, S., A. Sokolov, X. Gao and M. Haigh (2018)
Joint Program Report Series, March, 10 p.

Report 330 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely requires an energy system that is based on a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and fuels that will be required to stay competitive while meeting environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed by Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an energy system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate emissions from deforestation by midway through the second half of the century (specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a 400-member ensemble, reflecting uncertainty in Earth system response of global temperature change associated with the Sky scenario by 2100. We find that for the median climate parameters the global surface temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75°C above the pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of remaining below 2°C. The geographic distribution of the temperature change shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If, in addition, there is a significant effort directed toward global reforestation then, with median climate parameters, temperature increase by 2100, is near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Citation:

Paltsev, S., A. Sokolov, X. Gao and M. Haigh (2018): Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario. Joint Program Report Series Report 330, March, 10 p. (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16995)
  • Joint Program Report
Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario

Paltsev, S., A. Sokolov, X. Gao and M. Haigh

Report 

330
March, 10 p.
2018

Abstract/Summary: 

The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely requires an energy system that is based on a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and fuels that will be required to stay competitive while meeting environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed by Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an energy system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate emissions from deforestation by midway through the second half of the century (specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a 400-member ensemble, reflecting uncertainty in Earth system response of global temperature change associated with the Sky scenario by 2100. We find that for the median climate parameters the global surface temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75°C above the pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of remaining below 2°C. The geographic distribution of the temperature change shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If, in addition, there is a significant effort directed toward global reforestation then, with median climate parameters, temperature increase by 2100, is near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Posted to public: 

Monday, March 26, 2018 - 17:30