WORKSHOP: 2023 Global Change Outlook: Charting the Earth’s Future for Energy, Managed Resources, Climate, and Policy Prospects.
Background:
Quantifying the risks posed by simply maintaining existing climate policies—and the benefits (i.e., avoided damages and costs) of accelerated climate action aligned with keeping global warming below 1.5°C—is the central task of the 2023 Global Change Outlook, which we released in November. Based on a rigorous, integrated analysis of population and economic growth, technological change, Paris Agreement commitments, geopolitical tensions and other factors, the report presents the MIT Joint Program’s latest projections for the future of the Earth’s energy, food, water and climate systems, as well as prospects for achieving the Paris Agreement’s short and long-term climate goals.
The 2023 Outlook performs its risk-benefit analysis by focusing on two scenarios. The first, Current Trends, assumes that Paris Agreement NDCs are implemented through the year 2030, and maintained thereafter. While this scenario represents an unprecedented global commitment to limit greenhouse gas emissions, it neither stabilizes climate nor limits climate change. The second scenario, Accelerated Actions, extends from the Paris Agreement’s initial NDCs and aligns with its long-term goals. This scenario aims to limit and stabilize human-induced global climate warming to 1.5˚C by the end of this century with at least a 50% probability. Uncertainty is quantified using 400-member ensembles of projections for each scenario. This year’s Outlook also includes a visualization tool that enables a higher-resolution exploration of both scenarios.
Topics:
- Introduction
- Scenarios
- Energy
- Emissions and Climate
- Managed Resources
- Prospects for Meeting Climate Goals
Presenters:
Sergey Paltsev
Adam Schlosser
Jennifer Morris
