Predicting Climate in a Chaotic World: How Certain Can We Be?

November 01, 2012, 6:30pm

Watch the event: http://globalchange.mit.edu/news-events/communications/35

The Lorenz Center presents the 2nd John Carlson Lecture 
The John Carlson Lecture communicates exciting new results in climate science to the general public. Free of charge, the lecture is made possible by a gift from MIT alumnus John H. Carlson to the Lorenz Center at MIT.

 

Timothy Palmer

Lecture summary: Edward Lorenz's pioneering work on systems whose evolution is unpredictable and chaotic was motivated by a skepticism about the use of statistical models to predict next month's weather. And yet, on the web and elsewhere, one can find predictions not only of next month's weather, but also of the human effect on long-term climate. Can we have any confidence at all in long-range predictions of weather? And should we believe these estimates of human-induced climate change–or is the whole notion of predicting long-term changes in climate misguided and unscientific?

Speaker: Timothy Palmer is the Royal Society Professor of Climate Physics at Oxford University and a world expert on the the dynamics and predictability of weather and climate. He has pioneered the development of probabilistic forecast techniques for both weather and climate prediction–these techniques are now used routinely in operational centers around the world. Professor Palmer is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, and has won both their Jule G. Charney and Carl-Gustaf Rossby Medals.
 

Time: 6:30 p.m. Community Reception; 
7:00 p.m. Lecture
Location: Simons IMAX Theatre 
New England Aquarium 
Central Wharf 
Boston, MA 02110 

Free and open to the public; students and families welcome. Sponsor(s): MIT School of Science, New England Aquarium 

For more information, contact: 
Shira Wieder 
617.253.8055